Melbourne Cup day rate change unlikely

There is growing confidence the cash rate will remain unchanged at the RBA's November board meeting. Source: AAP

THERE is growing confidence the central bank will leave the official cash rate unchanged at its November board meeting for the second year in a row.

Between 2006 and 2011 the first Tuesday in November not only marked the race that stops the nation, but a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut.

But new economic figures suggest punters can enjoy next Tuesday's Melbourne Cup without worrying what action the RBA will take.

Low interest rates appear to be gaining traction in the housing market as monthly new building approvals soared to their highest number in three and a half years.

Master Builders Australia chief economist Peter Jones said the dramatic 14.4 per cent jump in approvals in September signals that the struggling building industry has weathered the worst and a genuine recovery is now in train.

"A long and strong recovery in residential building will be crucial in ensuring a successful rebalancing of Australia's economy post the resources boom," Mr Jones said in a statement.

A total 16,318 homes where given the nod of approval in September, the largest monthly number since March 2010, Thursday's data showed.

The result was bolstered by a 31.8 per cent spike in dwellings excluding houses - such a apartments and townhouses - to a record 7780 units.

This pipped the previous peak of 7855 set in October 2002.

Despite this surge in approvals and gains in house prices more generally, there remains little sign of a credit-fuelled bubble in the housing market.

New RBA data shows credit for housing remains contained, rising 0.4 per cent to an annual rate of 4.8 per cent

Annual housing credit was running at double-digit growth prior to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Separately, trade price data for the September quarter indicates the terms of trade has resumed its decline after steadying in the first six months of 2013.

The terms of trade, a measure of the nation's income, showed that while export prices grew 4.2 per cent in the quarter, they were outpaced by a 6.1 per cent rise in import prices.

Macquarie Research economist Gabby Hajj said the data suggests net exports are likely to subtract from economic growth in the September quarter.

"Given Australia's exports have been a key support for growth over the past several quarters, a large drag from net exports would be problematic," he said.

RBC Capital Markets head of strategy Su-Lin Ong said on balance Thursday's data will provide the RBA with some reassurance that low rates are working, albeit modestly.

"Given the RBA's reluctance to ease further, this is probably enough to keep them on the sidelines for the next few months," Ms Ong said.

The cash rate sits an all time low of 2.5 per cent.

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