China data add to economic growth fears

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 10 Juli 2013 | 17.52

CHINA'S trade surplus fell 14.0 per cent in June as imports and exports both dropped unexpectedly, suggesting a further slowdown in the Asian economic giant as Beijing warned of "grave challenges".

Wednesday's figures are the latest to set alarm bells ringing over the health of China's rebound from a prolonged downtrend as trade and manufacturing conditions have worsened this year.

Exports slipped 3.1 per cent to $US174.32 billion ($A191.06 billion), according to figures from Customs, while imports were down 0.7 per cent at $US147.19 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $US27.13 billion.

Average expectations in a survey of 20 economists by Dow Jones Newswires had been for a 3.3 per cent rise in exports and imports to go up 5.5 per cent.

"Currently China's foreign trade is facing grave challenges," Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng told reporters.

He said "prolonged sluggish foreign demand" was the main cause, followed by rising export prices in foreign currency terms, labour costs, and a deteriorating trade environment due to growing trade disputes.

The figures came after the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecast, citing new downside risks in key emerging-market economies and a deeper recession in the eurozone.

The IMF projected the world economy to expand 3.1 per cent in 2013, down from its April estimate of 3.3 per cent.

China and other emerging economic powers now face new risks, it warned, "including the possibility of a longer growth slowdown".

Economists from ANZ bank warned China would not achieve its goal of eight per cent growth in trade this year - after failing to deliver a 10-per cent gain targeted for 2012 - if the softness persists.

"This will not only bring about downside risk to the GDP growth for this year but also place severe pressure on employment," Liu Ligang and Zhou Hao said in a research note.

China's economy grew 7.8 per cent in 2012, its worst performance in 13 years, on the back of slack demand for exports and weakness at home.

The first three months of this year saw expansion of just 7.7 per cent, disappointing analysts who had expected growth to accelerate after showing strength at the end of 2012.

The government has set a growth target for 2013 of 7.5 per cent, the same as last year's, as it looks to retool its economic model from exports to domestic consumption.

Beijing is due to announce gross domestic product figures for the second quarter next Monday.


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